Ahead of the Game: Newcastle United

Newcastle United vs Liverpool

Premier League

St James' Park

19/10/2013

12:45

Liverpool travel north-east to take on Newcastle in Saturday’s lunchtime kick-off at St James’ Park. The corresponding fixture last season saw the Reds steamroll the home side 6-0, despite being without Luis Suarez.

Newcastle’s meetings with Liverpool have famously been laced with goals through the years and, incredibly, there has not been a goalless draw between the sides since 1974. Additionally, only one fixture in Premier League history (Arsenal against Tottenham - 125 goals) has seen more goals scored than this matchup (122).

Daniel Sturridge bagged a brace in Liverpool's 6-0 romp over Newcastle
in April.

Cue a 0-0 draw then.

The international break is always a nervous period for fans, and particularly Brendan Rodgers, as the club’s star players travel far and wide across the globe to line-up for their countries. Luckily, it seems as though all of Liverpool’s worldwide wanderers came through their national matches relatively unscathed and we can now look ahead to the weekend with the likes of Luis Suarez, Steven Gerrard and Daniel Sturridge fit and raring to go.

Daniel Agger, who will be hoping to regain his place at the heart of the Reds’ defence for the visit to Newcastle, scored a brace for Denmark as they beat Malta 6-0 to secure their place in the World Cup Qualifying Playoffs.

The return of key players, seemingly untouched from international duty, will of course serve as a relief to us, and Brendan Rodgers’ mood could be further embellished if Glen Johnson, Joe Allen, Aly Cissokho and Philippe Coutinho are available for Saturday, as is being reported. Johnson tweeted on Tuesday that he is back in training and hoping to be fit for the game, so, given his importance to our team, I’d expect him to start. Cissokho lined up last Monday for Liverpool Under-21s, and subsequently a return to the first-team squad looks likely. I am less sure Coutinho will be involved, having previously been ruled out until the end of October. Admittedly though, our medical staff have shown before they are liable to get players back to fitness ahead of schedule, so I wouldn’t bet against a role on the bench for the Brazilian master.

One of Liverpool’s main weaknesses, aside from a recent lack of control and ball retention, is our proneness to conceding from set-pieces. The fact that three of the last four goals against the Reds have been scored from either indirect corners or free-kicks supports this observation. To add to that, on average we have won just 13.9 aerial duels per game this season: the least in the Premier League. Newcastle, our opponents on Saturday, on the other hand have proven themselves to be particularly strong in the air, winning the third most headers per game in the league this campaign (20.6). Consequently, Liverpool will have to be watchful of crosses into their defensive area.

Finally for the Reds, Steven Gerrard is sitting on 99 Premier League goals. After his strike for England on Tuesday, coupled with the fact that he has only scored more league goals against Aston Villa than Newcastle, I have a sneaky feeling our captain could bring up his ton against the Toon on Saturday. It’s definitely worth a wager.

Newcastle are a side packed with mercurial, continental talent: dangerous on their day but shambolic off it. You get the feeling they are never far from falling to pieces (last April is an example).

Magpie’s manager Alan Pardew will be sweating over the fitness of vital central defensive, Fabricio Coloccini and Steven Taylor, as the pair race to be fit for Liverpool’s visit on Saturday. The latter is one of just three English players to appear for Newcastle in the Premier League this season, fewer than any other side, and alarmingly, their last 12 top-flight goals have been scored by Frenchmen.

As Roberto Martinez touched on last month, Newcastle’s counter-attacking pace perhaps means they are a more hazardous opposition when they are away from home. And indeed, Pardew’s side have scored just three goals in their three Premier League home games so far this season, despite the matches being against West Ham, Fulham and Hull. The Magpie’s also have a tendency to be profligate in-front of goal; they have taken 16.1 shots at goal per game in the league this season, more than Liverpool, but have aimed less on target than the Reds.

I think Liverpool will have enough to secure their third consecutive win on Saturday, and whilst the fitness of Newcastle defenders Fabricio Coloccini and Steven Taylor could limit our scoring, I don’t anticipate it changing the result.

My Line-up

Whilst a change of shape, to 3-4-1-2, has secured three points for us in each of the last two games, I don't think our performances have been as dominant as they could have been. In my opinion, if we continue to play the way we are, with a lack of compactness and control in central midfield, we'll soon be found out. I think Brendan knows this himself, judging by his comments after the Palace game.

In order to improve then, and better our ball retention, I think we need to have more presence in centre midfield. I've gone with a narrow diamond shape, for reasons I explained in a piece I wrote last week for +This Is Anfield. A 4-3-3 would also suffice.

Of course, the one downside of returning to a back four would be having to select just two centre-backs from four who are all performing well. This however is a small sacrifice to accommodate the team's improvement as a whole. I've gone with Sakho and Toure as I like the balance of a right/left foot partnership.

View From the Other Side

Newcastle fan @gallowgateshots - " ...... 0-5 ... Improvement on last year ... Sturridge will tears us a new one !!!"

Newcastle fan @Le_WZRD - "Will be 2-5, Colo out injured means we have no decent defenders but we're decent on the attack"

Key Man

Yohan Cabaye - The French play-maker is undoubtedly a class act. He sits deep in midfield for Newcastle and looks to pull the strings and dictate the tempo of the game. Whilst not possessing as direct a goal threat as the likes of Loic Remy and Hatem Ben Arfa, Cabaye has a habit of scoring spectacular goals, as we have seen on his last two visits to Merseyside. One to watch.

Newcastle‘s Last Six

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Liverpool‘s Last Six

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Odds

Newcastle - 17/5
Draw - 14/5
Liverpool - 10/11

My Prediction

Newcastle 1 - 3 Liverpool

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